Analysis and trend forecast of international crude oil price(2015)

Author:YE MA     Source:ceep    Date:2015-01-23

1. The reviews of international crude oil price In 2014

  In recent years, complexity of the global economy, geopolitical instability and market speculation inducecontinuing turbulence of international oil prices. First half of 2014,the oil prices stayed in a high level while encounteredsharp divein July and there are still no signs of stabilization.

2.The analysisofinternational crude oil market situation in 2015

2.1 Fundamental Analysis of the oil market
——Due to lackingin motivationof global economic growth, the demand of oil will be decreased continuously.
——With the shale gas revolution and OPEC stable production, the supplystructure of global oil will be the normality.
——The continuously highlevel of global commercial inventories of crude oil impedesthe oil price rebound.

2.2 Non-Fundamental Analysis of the oil market
——In 2014, the dollar index kept climbing leaded the oil price to falling down.
——Strengthening of financial regulation will dim the impact of speculation on oil price fluctuations.
——Crude oil market is expected to being bullish rather than being bearish.
——Geopolitical risks will exacerbate the volatilityof oil price.

3. Synthetic judgment of international oil in 2015

  In 2015, in yield relative surplus situations, oil prices will still continue a downtrend in the first half,international crude oil prices will stay in low volatility, affected by the global economic situation and the main function of the supply and demand fundamentals.