2020 energy economic forecast and outlook research report released in Beijing

Author:ceep    Source:ceep    Date:2020-01-09 Views:

  On January 8, 2020, the energy and environmental policy research center of Beijing University of science and technology held a press conference of 2020 "energy economy forecast and outlook Research Report" in Beijing, and released the "China's energy economy development and outlook in the context of economic pressure", "forecast and outlook of 2020 photovoltaic and wind power industry prospect", "new energy automobile industry in forge ahead", "2020 international" Crude oil price analysis and trend forecast, carbon dioxide capture, utilization and storage project progress and layout outlook, carbon market forecast and outlook in 2020, six research reports. This series of reports is the research team led by Wei Yiming, Chair Professor of Beijing University of science and technology. According to the changes of the international and domestic energy economy and climate policy situation in the last year, the research results of targeted research on specific topics are selected. Since 2011, Beijing University of science and technology has issued a report for 10 consecutive years, which has won extensive social attention.

  

  Yang Zhihong, deputy secretary of the Party committee and Secretary of the Commission for Discipline Inspection of Beijing University of technology, delivered a welcome speech. Professor Wei Yiming, vice president of Beijing University of science and technology and director of energy and environmental policy research center, reviewed the press conference of energy economic forecast and outlook research report that lasted for ten years, and gave a general introduction to the report that will be published. 

 

 

    

  Experts such as Pan Jiahua, member of the Faculty of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, director of the Institute of urban development and environment, Gao Shixian, deputy director of the Energy Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, He Ping, director of the China industrial energy conservation project of the American energy foundation, and Chang Yuwen, director of the Institute of oil and gas development strategic planning of the China Petroleum Exploration and Development Research Institute respectively addressed the report and related energy issues It makes comments and prospects. 

    

  

  Professor Wang Zhaohua, Professor Liao Hua, Professor Tang Baojun and assistant professor Shen Meng of the energy and Environment Policy Research Center presided over the relevant links of the report conference.

  According to the report of China's energy economic development and Outlook under economic pressure, economic pressure has a general impact on the energy consumption of various industries, so it is necessary to accelerate the adjustment of economic structure and continue to promote the optimization of energy consumption. Under the benchmark scenario, GDP and energy consumption are expected to be 172 trillion yuan (constant price in 2018) and 5.7 billion tons of standard coal in 2030.According to the report of forecast and Prospect of photovoltaic and wind power industry in 2020, the prosperity of both industries in 2020 is on the upward trend. The low price Internet access and technological breakthrough help the industry to reduce costs and increase efficiency, accelerate the survival of the fittest, and make the strong stronger stronger stronger and stronger. It is predicted that the market concentration of photovoltaic single crystal silicon and photovoltaic glass duopoly will exceed 60% in 2020, and Shanghai Electric, the leader of offshore wind power, will maintain a market share of 40% - 50%.

  According to the report of new energy automobile industry, it is expected to achieve the goal of cumulative production and sales of more than 5 million vehicles in 2020; private consumers have become an important market force; it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the flow of double integral income after foreign enterprises enter the domestic market.

  According to the report of international crude oil price analysis and trend forecast in 2020, the international crude oil market will continue to be oversupplied in 2020, the geopolitical conflict will be more intense, and the uncertainty of oil price will increase. Brent and WTI crude oil are expected to reach an average price of 61-71 USD / barrel and 53-63 USD / barrel.

  The report predicted that by 2050, the total global investment of CCUs technology to achieve 92 billion tons of emission reduction required by the 2-degree temperature control target is nearly 37 trillion yuan, and China needs 26 billion tons of emission reduction, with a total investment of nearly 13 trillion yuan.

  According to the report of carbon market forecast and outlook in 2020, the trading volume of China's pilot carbon market in 2019 has increased from the previous year, reaching about 77000000 yuan; the construction of basic capacity of the national carbon market has been steadily promoted, but the construction progress is slightly lagging behind; it is suggested that in 2020 and the fourteenth Five Year Plan period, the coordination of departments should be strengthened, the legal system of the national carbon market should be improved as soon as possible, the overall planning should be made, and the pilot carbon market should be promoted A smooth transition from the market to the national carbon market.   

 

  

    

  More than 20 media representatives including people's daily, Beijing TV and more than 100 experts and scholars from other domestic universities, enterprises and research institutes attended the conference.