The report“2021 Energy Economy Forecast and Outlook” released in Beijing

Author:ceep    Source:ceep    Date:2021-01-11 Views:

On January 10, 2021, the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research of Beijing Institute of Technology held the "2021 Energy Economic Forecast and Outlook Research Report Press Conference" in Beijing, and released the "China's 14th Five-Year Plan Energy Demand Forecast and Outlook" and eight research reports which are "Energy economy index research based on industry perspective", "Global climate protection assessment report", "Global Climate Governance Strategy and China's carbon emissions". "Prospect of China's new energy vehicle industry in 2020", "Low carbon development of hydrogen production from coal in the context of carbon neutralization", "Analysis and trend forecast of international crude oil price in 2021", and "China's provincial energy efficiency index (2010-2018)". This series of reports is produced by the research team led by Professor Wei Yiming, the Vice President of Beijing Institute of Technology. Based on the changes in the international and domestic energy economy and climate policy situations in the previous year, specific topics are selected to carry out targeted research results. Since 2011, Beijing Institute of Technology has issued reports for 11 consecutive years and has gained widespread social attention.

The report "China's 14th Five-year plan Energy Demand Forecast and Outlook” believes that "the 14th five-year plan" period will be another major historical transformation period in China's energy development, and the safe, efficient, clean and low-carbon transformation of the energy system is expected to make significant progress. During the "14th five year plan" period, the theme of "clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient" energy development and transformation will be more distinct, the weight of energy system transformation in the work of governments at all levels and departments will be significantly increased, the inflow of state-owned capital, social capital and financial funds in energy transformation related fields will be significantly increased, and the smart energy industry will become an important economic growth point and support energy Source system transformation. It is estimated that the total energy consumption in 2025 will be close to 5.5 billion tons of standard coal, and the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will exceed 20%.

The "Energy Economic Index Research Based on the Industry Perspective" released the calculation results to the society for the first time. In the second quarter of 2020, the macroeconomic and energy economy began to pick up significantly, and the renewable energy industry took the lead to recover, and the photovoltaic cell module industry had the best development prospects.

According to the "Global Climate Protection Assessment Report", the degree of climate protection efforts of major countries varies greatly, and countries represented by Denmark, Ireland, China, the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden are active and effective in climate protection; some major emitters need to further transform their emission reduction potential into practical actions.

The report “Global Climate Governance Strategy and China Carbon Neutralization Path Outlook” suggests that actively responding to climate change can bring significant economic benefits, and accelerating low-carbon transformation of energy system will be the key to achieve the goal of 2060 carbon neutralization in China.

The report "New Energy Automobile Industry 2020 Annual Review and Future Prospects" suggests that in 2020, the new energy automobile industry has been gradually released from the impact of a major outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia in the early stage of the year under the support of a series of policy guidance and the support of measures to resume production. In the future, we need to focus on the sales target of 2025 and the breakthrough of the battery system energy density.

The report "Low-Carbon Development of Hydrogen Production from Coal in the Context of Carbon Neutrality" states that: in the context of China's carbon peak and carbon neutralization, low carbon development of hydrogen energy is crucial. As the main method of hydrogen production, combined with CCS technology for hydrogen production from coal, the carbon footprint has decreased significantly. Although the cost has increased, it still has a certain competitive advantage over other hydrogen production technologies in the short term.

The report "Analysis and Trend Forecast of International Crude Oil Price in 2021" predicts that in 2021, the demand of international crude oil market will recover, the supply will be controlled, the supply and demand will show a tight balance, and the oil price is expected to pick up. However, we need to be alert to the short-term impact of various emergencies on the oil price. It is estimated that the average price of Brent and WTI crude oil will be in the range of US$44-54/barrel and US$41-51/barrel.

The report "China Inter-provincial Energy Efficiency Index (2010-2018)" points out that China's average energy efficiency index increased by 10.6% from 2010 to 2018, and the overall progress of energy efficiency is obvious, but the energy efficiency gap between regions is still large. The energy efficiency index of Beijing, which ranked first in 2018, is about 2.1 times that of Xinjiang, which ranked last.

Professor Wei Yiming, director of the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, introduced the background and overall situation of the formation of the energy economic forecast and outlook research report, and also prospected and elaborated on China's energy economic situation and key issues in 2021. Professor Liao Hua, Professor Tang Baojun, Professor Liu Lancui, Professor Yu Biying, Professor Zhang Xiang, Dr. Kang Jianing, Professor Zhao Lutao, and Professor Wang Ke respectively introduced the main contents of the above eight reports in detail.

Ding Zhimin, former deputy director of the Department of Legal System and System Reform of the National Energy Administration, Pan Jiahua, member of the academic department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, former director of the Institute of Urban Development and Environment, Dai Yande, former director of the Energy Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, Ma Aimin, deputy director of the National Center for Strategic Research and International Cooperation on Climate Change, and Scientific Research Institute of the Ministry of Transport, Wang Xianjin, vice president of the Research Institute, chief engineer, Liu Chaoquan, vice president of the China Petroleum Institute of Economics and Technology, Senior economist, Chang Yuwen, director of the Institute of Oil and Gas Development Strategic Planning of the China Petroleum Exploration and Development Research Institute, and He Ping, director of the China industrial energy conservation project of the energy foundation, respectively commented on the report and related energy issues.

Professor Wang Zhaohua, Professor Liang Qiaomei, Professor Qu Shen, Professor Liao Hua, Professor Tang Baojun and Assistant Professor Shen Meng from the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research chaired the relevant links of the report conference respectively.

More than 20 media representatives including CCTV and People's Daily Online participated in the press conference online and offline and followed up reports.

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