【报告题目】：Emission pathways to achieve 2.0 and 1.5 ºC climate targets

【报告人】：苏宣铭 博士 （日本国立环境研究所）

【报告时间】：2016年12月7日15:00

【报告地点】：主楼六层 能源与环境政策研究中心

【报告人介绍】：

　　苏宣铭，日本立命馆大学博士，现为日本国立环境研究所特别研究员，主要从事经济影响与气候变化综合评价模型开发分析。

【报告内容介绍】：

　　We investigated the feasibilities of 2.0 and 1.5 ºC climate targets by considering the abatement potentials for a full suite of greenhouse gases, pollutants, and aerosols. We revised the intertemporal dynamic optimization model DICE-2013R by introducing three features as follows. First, we applied a new Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curve derived under moderate assumptions regarding future socioeconomic development - the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 (SSP2) scenario. Second, we addressed emission abatement for not only industrial CO2 but also land-use CO2, CH4, N2O, halogenated gases, CO, volatile organic compounds (VOC), SOx, NOx, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). Third, we improved the treatment of non-CO2 components in the climate module based on MAGICC 6.0. We obtained the following findings: 1) It is important to address individual emissions in an analysis of low stabilization scenarios because, abating land-use CO2, non-CO2 and aerosol emissions also contributes to maintaining a low level of radiative forcing, and substantially affects climate costs. 2) The 2.0 ºC target can be efficiently reached under the assumptions of the SSP2 scenario. 3) To achieve the 1.5 ºC target, overshoot can not be avoided, together with negative land-use CO2 emissions beginning in the 2030s. Achieving the 1.5 ºC target can triple the carbon price and double the GDP loss compared with the 2.0 ºC case.

（北京理工大学管理与经济学院、能源与环境政策研究中心）