报告人: 美国华盛顿大学Jeffrey C. Begun  博士

地 点：  主楼  6楼（能源与环境政策研究中心）

报告题目： In search of an environmental Kuznets curve in sulphur dioxide  concentrations: a Bayesian model averaging approach

报告摘要：

The exact specification and motivation for an environmental Kuznets  curve (EKC) is the subject of a vast literature in environmental economics. A  remarkably diverse set of econometric approaches and candidate regressors have  been proposed, which highlights the degree of model uncertainty surrounding the  relationship between environmental quality and pollution. We introduce Bayesian  model averaging (BMA) to the EKC analysis to examine: (a) whether a sulphur  dioxide EKC exists, and if so (b) which income/pollution specification is  supported by the data. BMA addresses model uncertainty as part of the empirical  strategy by incorporating the uncertainty about the validity of competing  theories into the posterior distribution. We find only weak support for an EKC,  which disappears altogether when we address issues relating to the extreme  oversampling of two industrialized countries in the sample. In contrast, our  results highlight the relative importance of political economy and site-specific  variables (specifically executive constraints and precipitation variation) in  explaining pollution outcomes. Trade is shown to play an important indirect  role, as it moderates the influence of the composition effect on  pollution.

报告人简介：

Jeffrey C. Begun, Ph.D. is currently a full-time lecturer in  University of Washington, Tacoma. His doctoral dissertation is titled A Bayesian  Analysis of Model Uncertainty and Development. His research interests are  focused on environmental economics, international Economics, economic growth and  development. The paper he will discuss in the seminar has been published on  Environment and Development Economics. The projects he is working on include  “Different Growth for Different Folks? Reexamining East Asian Growth  Determinants through Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA)”, and “Initial  Conditions and Heterogeneity in Cross-Country Growth: An Iterative Bayesian  Model Averaging (IBMA) Analysis”. He serves as editorial board member for  International Journal of Sustainable Economy, PPE Paper Prize committee chair  and so on.