Five Years of US AI Expansion Could Offset Fifteen Years of Power-Sector Emissions Reductions; China’s 2026 Clean-Tech Exports Could Help Avoid Around 450 Million Tonnes of CO2 Overseas Each Year
(2026/10/26—2026/11/01)
Author：Hao-Wang
International Energy News
1. Five Years of US AI Expansion Could Offset Fifteen Years of Power-Sector Emissions Reductions
Bloomberg recently cited an internal Sierra Club analysis estimating that, if planned artificial intelligence projects are built, annual carbon dioxide emissions from the US power sector could reach 2.1 billion tonnes by 2030. This would represent an increase of 618 million tonnes, or approximately 42%, from 2025 levels. The additional emissions associated with five years of AI expansion could therefore offset the sector’s emissions reductions achieved over the preceding fifteen years.
Growing electricity demand from data centres is driving the construction of gas-fired power plants. To avoid lengthy waits for grid connections, some developers are building their own power supplies. Annual emissions from these facilities that are not directly connected to the grid could exceed 460 million tonnes by 2030. Actual emissions will depend on how many projects are completed, their power supply arrangements and the pace of renewable energy development.
2. Concentrations of Major Greenhouse Gases Reach New Record Highs
The World Meteorological Organization recently released its Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, reporting that the globally averaged surface concentration of carbon dioxide reached 426.8 parts per million in 2025. This was 53% above pre-industrial levels and 2.8 parts per million higher than in 2024. Methane and nitrous oxide concentrations also reached record highs. Between 1990 and 2025, radiative forcing from long-lived greenhouse gases increased by 56%, with carbon dioxide accounting for approximately 81% of that increase.
The bulletin noted that fossil fuel combustion continues to drive the accumulation of carbon dioxide, while drought, vegetation changes and wildfires associated with El Niño could weaken the capacity of land ecosystems to absorb carbon. Carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for a long time, affecting the climate for decades to centuries. Continued increases in greenhouse gas concentrations will intensify long-term warming and extreme weather risks.
3. Climate-Related Health Risks Intensify as the Clean Energy Transition Delivers Health Benefits
The recently published 2026 Report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change found that average annual heat-related deaths after the Paris Agreement entered into force increased by nearly 36% compared with the preceding decade. In 2023, heat was associated with approximately 710,000 deaths worldwide, more than 70% of which were attributable to human-caused climate change. The report also highlighted drought, hydrological extremes and economic losses caused by heat.
The report noted that global clean energy investment reached a record US$2.1 trillion in 2025. Reductions in air pollution from fossil fuels have helped lower the risk of premature death in many countries, while health adaptation plans and early warning systems are being expanded. The report called for faster greenhouse gas emissions reductions, greater investment in climate adaptation, and the integration of health protection into energy transition and climate finance decisions.
Domestic Energy News
1. China’s 2026 Clean-Tech Exports Could Help Avoid Around 450 Million Tonnes of CO2 Overseas Each Year
Carbon Brief recently published an analysis by a researcher at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. If export growth trends from the first three quarters continue, China’s 2026 exports of solar, wind, battery and electric vehicle technologies could avoid approximately 450 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions annually once deployed overseas. This would represent nearly 2% of global emissions outside China, roughly equivalent to Brazil’s annual carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels.
During the first three quarters, China’s exports of electric passenger cars and heavy vehicles increased by 61% year on year, while wind turbine shipments rose by 45%, batteries by 39% and solar products by 22%. The analysis estimated that equipment exported this year could avoid approximately 8.4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide over its operating lifetime, with around 76% of those avoided emissions occurring in Global South countries. The estimates account for export volumes, destination countries’ electricity systems and manufacturing emissions in China. Actual outcomes will depend on equipment deployment and use.
2. China’s Installed Renewable Energy Capacity Exceeds 2.5 Billion Kilowatts
China’s National Energy Administration recently announced that installed renewable energy capacity reached 2.518 billion kilowatts by the end of September, up 14.6% year on year and accounting for 60.94% of the country’s total power generation capacity. Combined wind and solar capacity reached 2.01 billion kilowatts, representing nearly half of the total. Solar power has become the largest source of installed generation capacity. Renewable energy capacity additions totalled 180 million kilowatts in the first three quarters, accounting for 71.7% of all new capacity.
Renewable electricity generation reached 3.13 trillion kilowatt-hours in the first three quarters, an increase of approximately 8% year on year and equivalent to 41.8% of total electricity generation. Wind and solar together generated 1.92 trillion kilowatt-hours, up 11%, meeting 23.8% of total electricity consumption. Renewable electricity generation increased by more than 250 billion kilowatt-hours, contributing 87.5% of the nationwide increase in electricity generation and becoming the main source of growth in power supply.
3. Southern Regional Electricity Market Approved to Begin Formal Operation
China’s National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration recently published a reply granting approval in principle for the Southern Regional Electricity Market to transition to formal operation. The authorities called for integrated market development and operation, with further expansion in trading scope and volume. Covering Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou and Hainan, the market enables different types of generators to trade under unified rules. It also seeks to bring all electricity users, except those covered by guaranteed supply arrangements, into direct market trading.
The reply called for orderly implementation of interprovincial electricity deliveries specified in national energy plans and intergovernmental agreements. It also required stronger arrangements for signing and fulfilling medium- and long-term power supply contracts, alongside closer coordination with regular trading across grid operators’ service areas. Further measures include adapting market mechanisms to renewable generation, expanding renewable electricity integration, and improving trading rules, technical platforms, information disclosure and market monitoring. These measures aim to maintain supply security while supporting a greener, lower-carbon energy system.
(Main news sources: CCTVNEWS APP, International Energy Network, China Energy Network, National Energy Administration, China Energy News)
