FORECASTING AND PROSPECTS RESEARCH REPORT

In 2025, driven by global crude oil supply growth, subdued demand amid the energy transition, strategic adjustments by oil-producing countries, and diminished geopolitical risk premiums, international oil price benchmarks declined significantly, with annual average Brent and WTI futures prices at USD 68.19/bbl and USD 64.80/bbl respectively, both falling over 14% year-on-year. Based on a systematic review of 2025 price movements, this report analyzes the 2026 crude oil market from both fundamental and non-fundamental perspectives. On the fundamental side, global economic growth is slowing while crude oil demand maintains modest growth; OPEC+ has tentatively suspended production increases to stabilize the market, but non-OPEC+ capacity continues to expand, with supply growth outpacing demand and further reinforcing the loose supply-demand balance, while inventory levels are projected to accumulate. On the non-fundamental side, a weakening US dollar offers moderate support to prices, but bearish market sentiment, a sharp reduction in net long speculative positions, and elevated gold prices reflecting strong risk aversion collectively cap upside potential; geopolitical conflicts are becoming increasingly complex and remain a key driver of short-term volatility. Using the forecasting platform (inems1.bit.edu.cn) at BIT's Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, integrating quantitative models with expert judgment, the report projects Brent and WTI crude oil prices to average in the ranges of USD 53–63/bbl and USD 49–59/bbl in 2026. Overall, the supply-demand loosening in the international crude oil market is expected to deepen further in 2026, with downward pressure intensifying and the annual price benchmark likely moving lower than in 2025.

Special Statement: This report is one of a series of research reports completed by the research team at the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology. If reproduction is required, prior permission from the Center must be obtained, and the reprint must bear the note "Reprinted from the Series of Research Reports of the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology."