FORECASTING AND PROSPECTS RESEARCH REPORT

Amidst profound adjustments in the global energy landscape, 2026—as the inaugural year of the 15th Five-Year Plan—marks a period where China's energy sector shoulders the dual mission of reinforcing security safeguards and cultivating new quality productive forces. This report extends the CEEP China Energy Economic Index measurement methodology, incorporates a coupling coordination degree model, and adds a new track for hydrogen energy development and application. Covering 16 core energy sub-sectors, it systematically assesses and forecasts industry economic trends across six dimensions: policy support, industry supply-demand, industry high-quality development, stock indices, financial performance, and coordination-coupling degree. The findings indicate that the energy economy is helping China's macroeconomy withstand global tariff shocks and maintain a stable and positive trajectory. In 2026, high-innovation areas such as hydrogen energy, new energy vehicle batteries, and photovoltaic modules will sustain high momentum, while nuclear power and biomass energy are accumulating synergistic development potential. Traditional sectors like thermal power need to transform their roles through technological innovation, leveraging flexible dispatch and baseload guarantee functions. This work provides decision support for policymakers to assess industry dynamics and for investors and energy enterprises to optimize their strategies.

Special Statement: This report is one of a series of research reports completed by the research team at the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology. If reproduction is required, prior permission from the Center must be obtained, and the reprint must bear the note "Reprinted from the Series of Research Reports of the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology."