Global Critical Mineral Supply Risks Intensify; The Overall Situation of Power Supply and Demand Remains Stable under Record-High Electricity Demand
(2026/07/13—2026/07/19)
Author：Hao-Wang
International Energy News
1. Rising Risks in Global Critical Mineral Supply Chains
Recently, the latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlighted that critical mineral supply chains are facing multiple risks, including increasing supply concentration, expanding export restrictions, and declining investment. Minerals such as lithium, copper, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements are essential raw materials for renewable energy technologies, electric vehicles, and advanced manufacturing. However, supply chains have become increasingly concentrated in recent years. Investment in critical minerals declined by 9% in 2025, while tightening supply conditions and geopolitical uncertainties intensified price volatility.
The report noted that supply growth in refining has become highly concentrated over the past two years. The expansion of nickel refining capacity in Indonesia and refining capacity for other major energy minerals in China accounted for more than three-quarters of global refined supply growth. Although the rare earth sector has shown some progress, new projects in the United States and increased production in Malaysia reduced the share of the dominant supplier in rare earth refining from more than 90% in 2023 to 85% in 2025, with a further decline to 70% expected by 2035. Meanwhile, global diversification efforts still face a structural imbalance, with insufficient investment in refining and downstream processing capacity. For rare earths, planned refining capacity currently covers only around two-thirds of expected mining output.
Critical mineral supply security has become a key factor in the global clean energy transition. The report estimates that rare earth export restrictions could put approximately USD 6.5 trillion in downstream industries outside China at risk. Strengthening supply diversification, expanding processing capacity, and accelerating technological innovation will be essential to reducing supply chain vulnerabilities, ensuring the long-term development of electric vehicles, energy storage, and renewable energy, and supporting global low-carbon transition.
2.Dutch Energy Price Adjustment Opens a New Window for Renewable Energy Transition
Recently, the Dutch energy market introduced its annual price adjustment, affecting households that remain on variable energy contracts. Rising natural gas market volatility, energy tax adjustments, and higher grid fees have jointly increased energy costs. Grid management fees rose by approximately 11%, increasing annual expenses for an average household by around EUR 60. As conventional energy prices become more volatile, household energy consumption patterns are accelerating toward low-carbon solutions.
Price signals are improving the economic attractiveness of renewable energy technologies. Distributed solar PV, heat pumps, energy storage systems, and electric vehicles are gaining new development opportunities in the Netherlands. Self-consumption of solar power can effectively reduce electricity purchasing costs, while storage and demand response technologies can help consumers reduce exposure to peak electricity prices. Meanwhile, mechanisms such as direct green electricity supply, dynamic pricing, and virtual power plants are being developed to promote renewable energy substitution, improve energy system flexibility, and reduce carbon emissions.
3. IEA Launches Global Biogas Potential Mapping Tool
Recently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) launched a global biogas and biomethane potential assessment tool, using spatial analysis to identify opportunities for converting organic waste resources into energy. The analysis shows that existing global organic waste streams could sustainably produce nearly 900 billion cubic metres of natural gas equivalent of biogas and biomethane annually, exceeding 20% of current global natural gas demand. More than 70% of this potential is located in emerging and developing economies, with China, India, and Brazil among the countries with significant resource potential.
Biogas produced from agricultural residues, livestock manure, and municipal organic waste can be used for heating, electricity generation, or upgraded into biomethane as a substitute for natural gas. It provides multiple benefits, including improving energy security, reducing waste-related emissions, and supporting rural economic development. In 2025, the combined production of biogas and biomethane in the European Union reached nearly 20 billion cubic metres of natural gas equivalent, avoiding approximately USD 6 billion in fossil fuel import costs.
The IEA estimates that global waste-derived biogas production could increase from the current level of around 1.7 exajoules (EJ) to nearly 6 EJ by 2035, achieving annual emissions reductions of approximately 0.5 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent. By reducing methane emissions from agriculture and waste sectors while replacing fossil fuels, biogas could become an important component of future low-carbon energy systems. However, challenges remain, including relatively high production costs, insufficient infrastructure, and methane leakage control, requiring stronger policy support and comprehensive lifecycle carbon management.
Domestic Energy News
1. The Overall Situation of Power Supply and Demand Remains Stable under Record-High Electricity Demand
On 14 July, China’s national peak electricity load reached 1.551 billion kilowatts, setting a new historical record only five days after surpassing 1.5 billion kilowatts for the first time on 10 July. The rapid increase was mainly driven by persistent high temperatures, with air-conditioning demand becoming a major contributor to residential electricity growth. At the same time, industrial activity remained resilient, further supporting electricity demand. The record-high load reflects not only the pressure of extreme weather on the power system but also serves as an important indicator of economic activity and energy consumption trends.
The new record demonstrates the improved capacity and reliability of China’s power system. In recent years, ultra-high-voltage transmission, renewable energy dispatch, energy storage deployment, and demand response mechanisms have been continuously strengthened. The capacity of west-to-east electricity transmission has exceeded 300 GW, while new energy storage capacity has surpassed 100 GW, providing important support for electricity supply and system flexibility during peak demand periods. Meanwhile, as electrification continues to expand across the economy, electricity consumption is becoming an increasingly important indicator of economic activity. Renewable energy development and intelligent power system upgrades are accelerating the transition toward a low-carbon energy structure.
2. First Industrial Large AI Model in the Power Sector
Recently, “Da Watt Multimodal 2.0,” independently developed by China Southern Power Grid, successfully passed the industrial large model maturity assessment and became the first sector-specific large AI model in the power industry to achieve certification under this authoritative evaluation framework. The model integrates multimodal perception, intelligent reasoning, task execution, and continuous optimization capabilities. It can process multiple data sources, including text, images, and videos, and supports the full power sector value chain covering generation, transmission, transformation, distribution, and consumption.
“Da Watt Multimodal 2.0” has been applied in scenarios including equipment maintenance, safety supervision, and infrastructure management. It can identify equipment defects at substations, assist in safety risk detection, and improve the efficiency of engineering document analysis. The model currently supports more than 100,000 inference requests per day, providing technical support for the intelligent development of new power systems. The integration of artificial intelligence with power systems is expected to improve renewable energy utilization efficiency, optimize energy management, and accelerate digital transformation and low-carbon development in the energy sector.
3. Renewable Energy Supports Green Transformation of Seawater Desalination
Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and other government departments released the Action Plan for the Development of the Seawater Desalination Industry. The plan proposes increasing the application of clean energy sources, including wind energy, marine energy, and solar energy, in seawater desalination and promoting the integration of seawater desalination with clean energy systems. It encourages the adoption of waste heat utilization, green pretreatment technologies, and energy-saving measures, while accelerating the upgrading of outdated and energy-intensive desalination facilities.
Future efforts will support demonstration projects integrating seawater desalination with renewable energy, improve policies for local renewable energy consumption, and strengthen monitoring of energy use, water quality, and ecological impacts of concentrated brine discharge. By increasing the share of renewable energy in desalination processes, the industry can reduce dependence on fossil fuels, lower carbon emissions, and promote coordinated development of water security and energy transition.
(Main news sources: CCTVNEWS APP, International Energy Network, China Energy Network, National Energy Administration, China Energy News)
