Reciprocal tariffs cause world trade forecasts to collapse; National port thermal coal stocks fell quarter-on-quarter
（2025/04/21—2025/04/27）
Author：Shu-Xin Zhang
International Energy News
1. Reciprocal tariffs cause world trade forecasts to collapse
According to the latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report issued by the World Trade Organization (WTO), based on tariff conditions as of April 14, global merchandise trade volume is projected to decline by 0.2% in 2025. This represents a drop of nearly three percentage points compared to the low-tariff baseline scenario. If the situation further deteriorates by July 9, trade volume could shrink even more, potentially falling to -1.5% by 2025. A new report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development points out that due to shocks in trade policies, fluctuations in financial markets, and an increase in uncertainties, global economic growth is expected to slow down to 2.3% in 2025.
2. New York will increase electricity and natural gas prices by 20% within three years
The National Grid in New York, US, has unveiled an agreement: Starting from September, the average household's monthly electricity and gas bills will rise by $22. This agreement is a three-year phased fee increase plan. In the first year, the electricity rate hike will be relatively modest, with gradual increases in subsequent phases. According to the plan, revenues from electricity and natural gas will increase by $708 and $194 million, respectively. By the third year of the agreement, the average household's monthly electricity and gas expenses will be 50 higher than current levels. This electricity price hike is the largest in several decades, but it still requires approval from the New York State Public Service Commission to take effect.
3. Turkey aims to become the world's leading lithium producer using geothermal wells
The Geothermal Power Plant Investors Association points out that the development of Turkey's geothermal resources is still in its infancy, with only 10% of its geothermal potential currently being tapped. Relevant professionals believe that with its existing geothermal wells, Turkey has the potential to become a major global lithium-producing nation. If lithium is extracted from geothermal water that has already surfaced, it will significantly reduce the investment costs for exploration and drilling. It is projected that Turkey could produce 35,000 tons of lithium annually, while the global lithium production last year was 36,000 tons. Investors are optimistic about the prospects of combining lithium extraction with geothermal energy, as they believe it will lead to lower production costs since lithium content in groundwater is extremely low. Extracting this alkali metal directly from water has a far less severe environmental impact compared to traditional mining methods.
4. Italy is considering keeping the last batch of coal-fired power plants on standby
Recent news indicates that the Italian government plans to shut down the country's remaining two coal-fired power plants this year and place them on standby instead of dismantling them. Additionally, two coal-fired power plants on the island of Sardinia are awaiting the completion of a new submarine interconnector to achieve a complete phase-out of coal use. Preliminary data shows that Italy's coal-fired power generation in 2024 is expected to plummet by 71% to 350 million kilowatt-hours. This accounts for 1.3% of the total electricity production and 1.1% of the total electricity consumption. In the event of disruptions in natural gas and electricity supplies, the capacity of these power plants will become extremely valuable. However, this comes at the cost of maintaining a complex system in an idle state. It is projected that by 2029, Sardinia in Italy may still rely on coal.
Domestic Energy News
1. National port thermal coal stocks fell quarter-on-quarter
As of April 23, according to statistics from "Meitan Jianghu", the total inventory of coal at China's national coal ports stood at 75.061 million tons. This represents a decrease of 0.757 million tons compared to the previous period and an increase of 12.1 million tons year-on-year. Among them, the inventory of steam coal was 68.611 million tons, a drop of 0.697 million tons from the previous period and a rise of 12.5 million tons year-on-year. From a regional perspective, the inventory at ports in East China decreased by 0.363 million tons compared to the previous period, with the inventory reaching 8.377 million tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.092 million tons. The inventory at ports along the Yangtze River increased by 0.097 million tons, standing at 13.147 million tons, a year-on-year rise of 3.397 million tons. The inventory at ports in South China rose by 0.240 million tons compared to the previous period, with the inventory at 13.96 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.72 million tons.
2. Tibet's first large-scale hydropower station, with a cumulative power generation capacity of more than 20 billion kilowatt-hours
On April 22, the Zangmu Hydropower Station achieved a cumulative power generation milestone of over 20 billion kilowatt hours, having operated safely for more than 3,800 days. As the first large-scale hydropower station in Tibet, the Zangmu Hydropower Station boasts a total installed capacity of 510,000 kilowatts. It stands as a landmark project in Tibet's power development history, marking the transition from a 100,000-kilowatt level to a 500,000-kilowatt level. The Zangmu Hydropower Station has accumulated invaluable experience in the construction and operation of large-scale hydropower stations in high-altitude regions of China. Since its commissioning, the station has significantly enhanced the safety, stability, and power supply capacity of Tibet's power grid. It greatly alleviated the situation at that time when high-cost oil-fired power units supplied electricity in Tibet and power shortages occurred during winter and spring. Additionally, it has facilitated the transmission of electricity from Tibet to other regions.
3. Ministry of Ecology and Environment: Determine the management objects included in the national carbon emission right trading market
The "Notice on Well-Conducting Work Related to the National Carbon Emissions Trading Market in 2025" issued by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment stipulates that, by April 20, 2025, provincial ecological and environmental bureaus shall pre-allocate the 2024 carbon emission allowances to key emitter units in the power generation sector. No pre-allocation of 2024 carbon emission allowances will be carried out for the iron and steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries. Starting from July 2025, within 40 natural days after the end of each month, provincial ecological and environmental bureaus shall organize key emitter units in the iron and steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries to conduct monthly digital archiving of carbon emission statistical and accounting data through the management platform. They shall also conduct technical reviews of the archived data. Before October 31, 2025, provincial ecological and environmental bureaus shall organize and complete the make-up reporting of monthly digital archiving for the carbon emission statistical and accounting data from January to June 2025 in the iron and steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries.
(Main news sources: International Energy Network, International Power Network, China Energy Network, National Energy Administration)
