On January 11, 2026, the Launch Conference of the 2026 Research Reports on Energy‑Economic Forecast and Outlook was held in Beijing. Six research reports were officially released, namely Outlook for China’s Energy Development during the 15th Five‑Year Plan Period, Research and Outlook on China Energy‑Economic Index 2026, Global Energy Transition Index Study (2015‑2024), Analysis and Trend Forecast of International Crude‑Oil Prices 2026, Review and Outlook of Global and China Carbon Markets (2026), and Review and Outlook for Low‑Carbon Computing‑Power Services. This series of reports is produced by the research team led by Distinguished Professor Wei Yiming of Beijing Institute of Technology. Targeted research is carried out on selected themes in response to changes in international and domestic energy‑economy and climate‑policy landscapes of the preceding year. Since 2011, Beijing Institute of Technology has published such reports for 16 consecutive years, attracting extensive public attention.

The conference brought together experts from the National Energy Administration, China Meteorological Administration, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China Energy Research Society, National Center for Climate Strategy Research and International Cooperation, China Circular Economy Association, Nanjing University, Children’s Investment Fund Foundation, China Coal Economics Research Association, Shanghai Futures Exchange, IEEE PES Subcommittee on International Electrical Energy‑Storage Market and Planning, Huazhong University of Science and Technology and other institutions. Representatives from more than 30 media outlets including China Media Group and People’s Daily Online covered the event. Over 3,000 participants from all sectors attended the conference both on‑site and online.

At the opening ceremony, Wang Bencong, Vice‑President of Beijing Institute of Technology, delivered opening remarks. Professor Wei Yiming, Distinguished Professor of BIT and Director of the Beijing Lab for System Engineering of Carbon Neutrality, gave an overview of the conference, reviewed the energy‑economic performance in 2025, and outlined opportunities and challenges for energy‑economic development in 2026. Professor Tang Baojun, Dean of the School of Management and Deputy Director of the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, presided over the opening ceremony.

In the report‑release session, lead authors of the six reports presented their key findings. Professor Cong Ronggang and Professor Liang Qiaomei chaired sessions of the launch conference respectively.

Regarding future prospects, Professor Liao Hua, lead author of Outlook for China’s Energy Development during the 15th Five‑Year Plan Period, pointed out: Sustainable endogenous driving forces for building China’s new‑type energy system will basically take shape in the 15th Five‑Year Plan period. The total consumption of traditional fossil energy is expected to hit a historic turning point and enter a downward phase. New‑energy development will remain a critical instrument for counter‑cyclical and cross‑cyclical macroeconomic regulation, making important contributions to both effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the economy.

On energy‑economic conditions, Professor Tang Baojun, author of Research and Outlook on China Energy‑Economic Index 2026, noted that the macro‑economy maintained steady sound performance in 2025 bolstered by the energy economy. In 2026, the hydrogen‑energy sector will enjoy strong momentum, keeping market heat alongside batteries and photovoltaics. Supported by anti‑involution‑oriented policies for quality‑and‑efficiency improvement, with traditional energy as the security backstop, the coordinated interplay of old and new growth drivers will underpin high‑quality development of the energy economy.

For global energy transition, Dr. Wu Yun, author of Global Energy Transition Index Study (2015‑2024), held that overall global energy‑transition performance in 2024 outperformed the 2015 baseline. Nevertheless, rising polarization of energy‑trade networks has amplified systemic vulnerability. Risks include widening cross‑country gaps and declining energy equity and transition support. China ranks 13th worldwide in energy transition, with further room for progress on the sustainability dimension.

In energy markets, Professor Zhao Lutao, author of Analysis and Trend Forecast of International Crude‑Oil Prices 2026, argued that fundamental supply‑demand support for oil prices will keep weakening in 2026, pointing to an overall loose market. Non‑fundamental factors will also exert downward pressure, while geopolitical conflicts remain major triggers of market volatility. Oil prices are projected to continue sliding, with average Brent and WTI crude prices forecast within USD 53‑63/bbl and USD 49‑59/bbl respectively.

On carbon markets, Professor Wang Ke, author of Review and Outlook of Global and China Carbon Markets (2026), stated that China’s national carbon market achieved leapfrog progress in 2025 with notably expanded coverage, growing policy influence and strengthened market expectations. Going forward, the national carbon market needs to further boost trading vitality and enhance alignment with global carbon‑pricing mechanisms and cross‑border emission‑reduction rules.

On low‑carbon computing power, Professor Cong Ronggang, author of Review and Outlook for Low‑Carbon Computing‑Power Services, observed that China’s computing‑power industry has entered a critical transition phase featuring tiered deployment, green‑low‑carbon development and efficient services. Moving ahead, guided by the value orientation of “low‑carbon + inclusiveness + integration”, a low‑carbon computing‑power service system and network shall be constructed featuring east‑west coordination, type‑specific adaptation, computing‑power‑power‑grid synergy, diversified markets and rich business forms. A sustainable computing‑power‑service ecosystem and market shall be perfected to support China’s transformation from a large computing‑power nation to a strong computing‑power nation.

During the conference, experts and scholars from government, industry, academia and research institutes held in‑depth and fruitful discussions, and the event received warm feedback. Professor Liao Hua, Director of the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, and Associate Professor Shen Meng, Assistant Director of the Center, chaired the expert‑commentary session and media‑interaction session respectively.

The Launch Conference of the 2026 Research Reports on Energy‑Economic Forecast and Outlook was co‑hosted by the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (BIT), Beijing Lab for System Engineering of Carbon Neutrality, MOE Joint International Research Laboratory of Carbon Neutrality System and Engineering Management, Beijing Key Laboratory of Energy Economics and Environmental Management, NSFC Basic Science Center for “Energy and Climate Change”, and the Specialized Committee for Carbon‑Mitigation Engineering Management under the China Coal Society.

Co‑organizers include the School of Management (BIT), Beijing Research Base for Sustainable Economic and Social Development, Research Center for Power‑Energy‑System Transition (Huazhong University of Science and Technology), School of the Environment (Nanjing University), Beijing Operations Research Society, Energy‑Economics and Management Research Branch of Chinese Society of Optimization, Overall Planning and Economic Mathematics, Energy‑Economics Specialized Committee of China Energy Research Society, Editorial Office of Energy and Climate Change, and Editorial Office of Coal Economic Research.

Full‑report download link: https://ceep.bit.edu.cn/zxcg/ndycbg/index.htm

Appendix: List of Research Reports