【Speaker】：Keywan Riahi (International Institute for Applied System Analysis)
【Title】：New ScenarioMIP Pathways and Insights from the Scenario Compass Initiative: What the Latest Global Emissions Scenarios Tell Us
【Time】：4:00pm, Feb 26, 2026.
【Location】：Zoom Meeting ID: 930 5039 2674, Passcode: 849325
【About Report】：Global emissions scenarios form a critical evidence base for climate policy, informing assessments of mitigation pathways, transition risks, and the feasibility of long-term climate targets. In this seminar, I will present recent advances in the global scenario landscape, focusing on the newly developed scenarios for the next phase of ScenarioMIP and on emerging insights from the Scenario Compass Initiative (SCI), a new community-driven process designed to provide continuously updated and policy-relevant scenario information.
The first part of the talk introduces the new ScenarioMIP scenarios, developed by an international modelling community to support the next generation of climate model intercomparison, impact, and risk analyses. These scenarios provide an updated and internally consistent set of global emissions pathways across a wide range of climate targets and socioeconomic assumptions.
The second part of the seminar draws on the rapidly expanding community scenario ensemble, including several hundred global emissions scenarios that the SCI collected since the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Using this broader and more up-to-date evidence base, I will highlight what recent scenarios imply for near-term emissions reductions, the timing of net-zero CO₂ and greenhouse gas emissions, and the evolving feasibility space of mitigation pathways. The results illustrate how recent real-world developments have shifted key benchmarks compared to earlier assessments, with important implications for policy ambition and implementation.
Together, the ScenarioMIP and SCI efforts represent a major step forward in aligning scenario development with the needs of decision-makers. These processes are expected to provide a central quantitative input into the next assessment cycle of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR7), supporting more timely, transparent, and policy-relevant climate assessments.
