【Speaker】：Prof. Nikolay Khabarov (International Institute for Applied System Analysis)

【Title】：Biophysical-Economic Modeling of Coffee Agroforestry Systems in Mexico

【Time】：10:00am, Apr 23, 2026.

【Location】：Beijing Lab for System Engineering of Carbon Neutrality

【About Report】：Shaded coffee production in agroforestry systems, as opposed to full sun production, is a nature-based solution (NbS) that helps maintain soil water balance and reduce heat exposure of coffee plants. It is included in the set of NbSes co-produced with stakeholders in the project SAbERES, which aims at supporting climate change adaptation for small-scale producers in Mexico. For this coffee production system, we analyze current and estimate future yields of small coffee growers in Mexico by employing a process-based coffee growth model CAF2014 adapted for geo-spatial applications and named CAF2014-Rhaobi. The modeled historical coffee yields are found to be generally in good agreement with the reported numbers. However, there are regions in Mexico with higher level of discrepancy between reported and estimated yields, which is explained by a range of modeling assumptions and simplifications. While shade trees provide some resilience, average drop in shaded coffee yields under present management in Mexico estimated for an ensemble of climate projections is about 25% at the end of the century compared to the present.

Potential economic implications of this scale of yield change would depend on typology of a small coffee producer e.g. conventional low- or high-efficiency, or organic producer. While high intensity conventional and organic production create distinctive environmental footprints, they can have comparable production costs and product output quantities. However, the organic price premium plays a major role in making coffee production economically sustainable thus emphasizing the need for innovative policies supporting farmers opting for certified production.