【Speaker】：Prof. Pengfei Sui (The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen))

【Title】：Macro-Equity Logic Chains in the Stock Market

【Time】：10:00am, May 14, 2026.

【Location】：Beijing Lab for System Engineering of Carbon Neutrality

【About Report】：How does macroeconomic information affect investors’ stock investment decisions? Based on large language models, this paper systematically addresses this question by identifying and analyzing the "Macro-Equity Logic Chains" in US stock research reports. The study finds that stock research reports containing such logic chains achieve significantly higher forecast accuracy, and core features such as the type and length of logic chains play an important role in improving accuracy. However, less than 10% of all stock research reports adopt such logic chains, indicating that constructing this causal reasoning incurs certain cognitive costs. In addition, analysts’ prior experience in writing macro reports can effectively predict the probability that they will apply similar logic in subsequent stock reports and further improve forecast accuracy. Finally, due to higher information value, the stock market reacts more strongly to analyst reports containing such logic chains.

We study how equity analysts structure causal reasoning that links macroeconomic conditions to firm-level outcomes when forming forecasts. Using a comprehensive dataset that links each analyst to the full history of their macroeconomic and equity reports, we extract explicit causal statements describing how macroeconomic variables affect equity outcomes, which we term macro-equity logic chains or MELCs. We show that equity forecasts issued in reports containing MELCs are significantly more accurate, yet MELCs only appear in fewer than 10% of equity research. The components of MELCs, such as their types and length, are important in the improvement in forecast accuracy. Analysts’ past exposure to MELCs through writing macro reports strongly predicts their subsequent use of similar reasoning in equity reports and is associated with improved forecast accuracy. Consistent with their greater informational content, the equity market responds more strongly to recommendations issued by analysts who more frequently employ MELCs.