Forecasting and Prospects Research Report on Energy Economy (2018) released in Beijing

Author:Guangpu Zhao    Source:ceep    Date:2018-01-18

 


  Forecasting and Prospects Research Report on Energy Economy (2018) was held successfully on Jan 13th, 2018 in Beijing by Centre for Energy & Environment Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology (BIT). Six research reports were released, including “Forecasting and Prospects of Energy Economy in the New Era”, “International Crude Oil Price Analysis and Forecasting in 2018”,  “Forecasting and Prospects of Petrochemical Industry in 2018”, “New Energy Vehicle New Era and New Expedition: 2017 Review and Future Prospects”, “Power Battery Recovery and Disposal for Electric Vehicles in China: Current Status, Trends and Countermeasures” and “Review and Prospect of China's Carbon Trading Market”. Based on the domestic and international energy economy and climate policy situations, this series of reports targeted on some specific topics were written by Prof. Yi-Ming Wei’s team of CEEP. Since 2011, the CEEP team has released 8 annual reports on energy economy forecasting and prospects, arousing widespread concern and influence from all walks of life.

 

  Zhi-hong Yang, secretary of commission for discipline inspection of BIT, delivered a welcome speech. Prof. Yi-Ming Wei, director of CEEP, introduced the general overview of the 2018 forecasting and prospects research report on energy economy and shared his judgment on the macroeconomic situation of China in 2018.

 

  Associate Prof. Yu Hao, the main author of the report “Forecasting and Prospects of Energy Economy in the New Era”, predicted that total China energy consumption will continue to increase slightly in the period of 2018 ~ 2022. The trend of insufficient energy imbalance will continue and the proportion of clean energy will increase significantly in the next five years. Associate Prof. Lu-tao Zhao, the author of the report “International Crude Oil Price Analysis and Forecasting in 2018”, pointed out that the international crude oil price will be gradually recovering in 2018 and the average prices of Brent and WTI were estimated to be 54-64 US dollars/barrel and 52-62 US dollars/barrel respectively. Associate Prof. Xin Lu, the author of the report “Forecasting and Prospects of Petrochemical Industry in 2018”, believed that the performance of Chinese and foreign oil companies will continue to improve in 2018. The mixed ownership reforming of large-scale oil enterprises, and the consolidation of local private refineries and gas stations will further arise the competitiveness of China's petrochemical industry. Prof. Xiang Zhang, the author of the report “New Energy Vehicle New Era and New Expedition: 2017 Review and Future Prospects”, stated that the development of new energy vehicles in China has entered a new era and made remarkable achievements under the guidance of sustained policies. Meanwhile, the industry is still in an important transition period from policy-dominated to market-dominated. Also there are some multiple challenges such as the lagging behind of subsidies, the imbalanced development among regions, and the gap between technical performance of products and consumer expectation. Assistant Prof. Bin Zhang, the author of the report “Power Battery Recovery and Disposal for Electric Vehicles in China: Current Status, Trends and Countermeasures”, insisted that China needs to establish a traceable recycling management system that is “mainly based on cascading utilization, and with dismantling and scrapping as a supplement”, and set up a special fund for battery recovery and disposal according to the principle of “mainly investing in electric vehicles, and with government support as a supplement”. Associate Prof. Ke Wang, the author of the report “Review and Prospect of China's Carbon Trading Market”, pointed out that the year of 2018 will be the period for infrastructure construction of the national carbon market, and the pilot carbon markets will continue to run in parallel. It will be an important work objective to sum up the pilot experience, drive the development of non-pilot areas and support the construction around the national market. Although the national carbon market will not have a significant impact on the first batch of power generation industry in the short term, the industry will be forced to optimize its structure in the long run to enhance its efficiency and promote its low-carbon development.

 

  Some of the most qualified experts were present at the launch conference, of whom are Research Prof. Yan-de Dai (former director of the Energy Research Institute of NDRC), Prof. Ping He (director of the Energy Foundation of the United States), Research Prof. Dan Shi (party secretary of the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences), Prof. Yu-wen Chang (director of the Institute of Strategic Planning for Petroleum Exploration & Development of Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Production), Research Prof. Shi-sen Xu (researcher of Clean Energy Research Institute of China Huaneng Group). In addition, Prof. Zhao-hua Wang, Prof. Bao-jun Tang, Prof. Hua Liao, and associate Prof. Wen-ling Liu presided over some duties to promote the conference.

 

  More than 30 media representatives attended the conference, including China News Service, People's Daily and Beijing TV Station, as well as more than 100 experts and scholars from domestic universities, enterprises and institutions. During media communications, the main reports authors conducted in-depth discussions on issues related to international oil prices, subsidies of new energy vehicles, power battery recycling and so forth.