Associate professor Yu Hao: the ratio of coal consumption will continue to decline

Author:YE MA    Source:ceep    Date:2016-04-04

Editor's note: In the "new normal" of energy background, the coal consumption in China is likely to reach a peak, as an important step in China's energy transition, during the "Thirteen-Five" period or in the 2019 to be more accurate. According to the calculation and measurement of the CEEP, China's coal consumption may drop to around 62% per cent in 2017 while is expected to drop to 58%~60% by 2020 and that number may to fall to about 50% by 2030.

  From associate professor Yu Hao’s perspective, the "new normal" mainly means that the continued moderation of total energy demand, structural transformation of energy demand, improved energy efficiency, regional characteristic of energy consumption as well as the low price of energy prices.

  According to the Plan of Action for the prevention of air pollution released by the State Department, the total volume of coal consumption is ought to be reduced below 65%. Actually, this is a closing target of the reality, from which is 66% by data in the Statistical Review of World Energy in 2014.

  The report predicts that China's oil demand will increase gently with an average annual growth rate of about 1.7%, during the "Thirteen-Five" period. At the same time, the ratio of oil demand may see a slightly decrease that may be 17.6%.

  Natural gas is the only kind of energy that will develop in a high speed. According to the report, the demand of natural gas will increase to 10% (6% right now) and may up to 11%~13% in 2030.